"Bitcoin at $100,000 is unlikely." 5 coin price forecasts for 2021

What to expect from the rate of the first cryptocurrency next year, whether it will be able to rise more than 10 times and what reasons to abandon BTC in favor of altcoins

The 2020 crisis caused by the coronavirus pandemic has come as a shock to financial markets. The price of oil fell to negative values, shares of large companies lost more than half of the value. Cryptocurrencies have shown similar dynamics. In March, against the background of the collapse in the stock market, the rate of bitcoin decreased to $3800, more than 50% in 2 days.

However, after a month and a half the price of the coin recovered, and in May came close to the annual high. Perhaps this could be one of the reasons why people's attitudes towards digital assets began to change in the world. For example, billionaire and founder of the hedge fund Tudor Investment Paul Tudor Jones saidthat he invested 1% of his assets, or about $50 million, in the first cryptocurrency.

Another reason is the policy of states to save the economy. The U.S. government issues a currency to deal with the economic consequences of the pandemic, which leads to the depreciation of the dollar. Economist and author of the bestselling book "Rich Dad, Poor Dad" Robert Kiyosaki believesthat this is the reason why people should buy bitcoin. Its emissions are limited, making it safe from inflation.

However, the question remains how the crisis, halving and other factors will affect the price of BTC. We interviewed experts to find out what to expect from the cryptocurrency exchange rate in 2021.

Forecast for 2021

During this year, the price of bitcoin was extremely volatile. In February, it rose to $10,500. In March it fell to $3800. In May, it returned to above $10,000. Now the coin costs $9300, and if you drop all the fluctuations, since the first of January it has risen by almost 30%.

Viktor Pershikov, lead analyst at 8848 Invest, is confident that BTC's prospects for next year will depend on how much the coin will cost at the end of this year. If its rate rises to $14,000 by December, the next target is $20,000.

"My forecast is to reach the $14,000 mark by the end of 2020. In this situation, next year we can expect to continue the growth of the BTC rate to historical highs in the region of $20,000," Pershikov suggested.

He cited several reasons for the growth of the asset price in the medium term. These include:

halving, which reduced the daily issue of the coin from 1800 to 900 BTC;
geopolitical tensions;
Risks of a second wave of COVID-19 infections;
increased demand for digital assets from institutional investors.
These fundamental factors can lead to the price of bitcoin to $14,000 this year, Pershikov admitted. But new growth drivers are needed to continue the upward trend in 2021.

EXANTE co-founder Anatoly Knyazev also expects the price of bitcoin to increase, and in the long run it is "inevitable." A new collapse of the course is unlikely. With a value of $6000 or below miners will massively refuse sales, this will reduce the supply of BTC in the market.

Alexei Markov, a leading trader at United Traders, also voiced a positive outlook on the bitcoin exchange rate. He explained this by the fact that gradually the cryptocurrency receives recognition in society. On the one hand, the number of users is growing. On the other hand, states are also moving towards a new kind of assets.

"I continue to adhere to a positive scenario on the development of events with the price of bitcoin. All we are seeing now is recognition. Yes, it is going slowly, not as many of us would like, but it goes. All indicators on the number of users, new wallets are growing, in parallel we see steps from the states: legal frameworks, licensing of transactions with cryptocurrencies, legalization of mining, for example, in Iran. All this speaks in direct text: bitcoin and cryptocurrencies with us for a serious and long time. The main factor for me as an investor is time, and for this you just have to be patient and wait," Markov said.

The founder of the platform of stable cryptocurrencies Stasis.net Grigory Klumov added that next year is likely to be a turning point for digital assets in terms of products for institutional investors. Infrastructure has been developed and launched, in particular, options on the Chicago Stock Exchange (CME), indices, quasi ETHF in Sweden, Japan and Germany. And the amount of assets blocked in decentralized finance (DeFi) exceeded $2 billion.

Vladislav Antonov, an analyst at Alpari IAC, noted that it is premature to predict the exchange rate of cryptocurrencies for 2021. Due to the uncertainty in the markets due to the pandemic, it is difficult to understand what will happen to the price of bitcoin at least in a month.

Bitcoin at $100,000?

Multiple rise in the price of bitcoin was predicted by many representatives of the crypto industry. Some predictions have not come true,others are still relevant. In April, for example, Anthony Pompliano, co-founder of Morgan Creek Digital, an investment firm, saidthe coin rate would rise to $100,000 by the end of 2021.

There are several reasons for this growth. First of all, it is a halving, held in May, Pompliano is sure. The second is the current crisis and the measures of states aimed at combating it. The issuance of additional money issuance by central banks of different countries will force investors to transfer capital into assets protected from inflation. These include gold, real estate and bitcoin.

Pershikov doubted that BTC could rise to $100,000. Even if the cryptocurrency receives recognition in society and approval from the states, it is unlikely to be enough for such an increase in value.

"Even with significant fundamental developments in the adoption of cryptocurrencies, the creation of comfortable regulation of digital assets at the global level, as well as the development of the mining industry, the goal of $100,000 is excessive and so far there are no prerequisites for such significant growth," Pershikov said.

Antonov voiced similar doubts. In his opinion, in theory everything is possible, but now there are no prerequisites for the increase in the price of BTC to $100,000. To begin with, you need to solve the problem with the scalability of the asset network. It can only support 4-7 transactions per second, making it unsuitable to work with a large number of users. For comparison, this figure in the Visa payment system is 24 thousand. transactions per second.

Princes does not believe in the price of the main digital asset more than 10 times. He conceded that such a price jump could happen if the rally of 2013 and 2017 were repeated. But now there is nothing like this on the cryptocurrency market.

"Achieving a level of $100,000 is unlikely. Such an option would be theoretically possible in the event of a repeat of the super-highs of 2013 and 2017, but now the BTC is in different conditions," Knyazev said.

Alternatives to bitcoin

After the March collapse, the price of bitcoin increased by 140%. However, some altcoins have shown better dynamics. For example, the token of the Binance BNB exchange then fell to $6.4, and now costs more than $17. The increase in value during this period is 170%.

The ChainLink (Link) token showed an even greater result. In March, its rate fell to $1.4. By now, the coin has risen to $6.1 and set a new historical high. Growth in four months - 330%

Pershikov believes that alctoins from the top 20 by capitalization in the long term look preferable to bitcoin. In contrast, they form a product, ecosystem and infrastructure and, to a lesser extent, strive to become a means of payment.

"In my opinion, the future lies in the digital assets of blockchain companies and digital solutions such as financial services, exchange tokens and decentralized applications (DeFi). In this battle, BTC in terms of profitability may lose to altcoins, as the financial model of companies offering their own tokens is more attractive for long-term investment. ALTHOUGH BTC remains the benchmark of the market, it lags behind many alternative tokens in terms of technological development as a blockchain project," Pershikov said.

Antonov admitted that many coins have the prospect of price growth from 60% to 140% before the end of the year. For example, EOS, Ethereum, Litecoin, Ethereum Classic and Cardano (ADA). But investments are needed to increase the price of assets. Technical factors inspire hope for growth, but there are almost no fundamental ones.

Knyazev considers it unnecessary to give up bitcoin in favor of altcoins. Despite the fact that the main digital asset has not become more expensive since the beginning of the year as the Ethereum coin, it still remains the most recognized cryptocurrency. The capitalization of BTC is two-thirds of the crypto market, and legal settlement and supply options and futures are also tied to it. In other words, bitcoin was the closest to legal adoption by the authorities.

Prospects are there, but not for $100,000

Most experts agreed that the rise in the price of bitcoin in 2021 is likely. In favor of this speaks the gradual recognition of cryptocurrency, reduction of emission after halving and other factors. But they are unlikely to be enough to increase the price of the coin to $100,000.

Perhaps altcoins are a more promising investment. They have already shown a bigger price increase after the March collapse. In addition to this, the first cryptocurrency may yield to newer tokens in technical characteristics and application. But somehow BTC is the face of the cryptocurrency market and will probably remain with them in the future.