Bitcoin will not be able to repeat the 2017 rally. Analysts are sure of that.

The rapid rise in the price of cryptocurrencies will be hindered by a lot, including the BTC futures market and investor psychology. Although the chances of a $20,000 record are still there, they are slim

2020 turned out to be volatile for BTC. In March, amid panic over the pandemic, the rate fell to $3.8 thousand, then it began to grow rapidly and in August set an annual record above $12 thousand.

By the end of the year, there is still hope for the growth of quotations to $20,000, said senior analyst of the Bestchange.ru Nikita Dzuborev. This is possible if there are no major shocks in the market and favorable conditions for strengthening remain. But big results should not be expected from BTC, he added.

The first serious deterrent was the futures. Three years ago there were no derivatives on BTC, and now any growth and fall in quotations is smoothed by the presence of deferred supplies. And the more the turnover of futures trading, the more smoothly the price of BTC will change.

The second factor hindering the explosive growth of BTC is the lack of a "ou effect" among the population, said Mr. Dzuborev. Four years ago, "only a small handful of IT workers" knew about the cryptocurrency, and in 2017 bitcoin became known and less dedicated. Then it led to an uncontrolled growth of investment, now such an effect has nowhere to take.

In addition, 1000 bitcoins, which had been inactive for 10 years, were included in the movement, he added. (The First Move was noticed by the Goldfoundinshit Telegram channel, the editorial office). In the community, this could raise concerns about the start of a "massive sell-off" for BTC, he said.

"Old coins have come into motion. It is not clear whether this was an accident or the beginning of a targeted large-scale sale. There are fears in the market and they cannot be ignored in a fundamental assessment," he explained.

Tatiana Maksimenko, the official representative of the Garantex crypto exchange, also questioned the possibility of repeating the 2017 rally. More likely, she considers a smooth increase in the cent - thus the coin will overcome the mark of $20,000 and possibly $40,000.

"Then it was largely provoked by the crazy profitability of the ICO-market, which then deflated, and it was followed by the entire cryptocurrency market. Now investors are not so naive, even newcomers have heard about the bubble of 2017 and are not ready to take so risks. In three years the market has changed a lot, has matured. I suppose it is for the best that now it develops not so leapfrogging" - shared Maksimenko.

Yuri Mazur, Head of Data Analysis at CEX. IO Broker, named another reason why a repeat of the 2017 scenario is unlikely. Three years ago there were no resistance levels, and now there are several of them, and upon reaching each, traders will sell coins, preventing its growth from continuing.

The growth of the BTC rate may be hindered by miners, Mazur warned. The current level of hashrate allows you to earn a high profit on the extraction of coins. Marathon Patent Group recently signed a 38 percent electricity discount with Montana-based energy company Beowulf Energy. On such terms, the mining 1 BTC will cost it about $4.6 thousand.

According to him, the profit from btC mining is impressive, and miners, in order to scare off new players and keep the parity of hashrate in the network, can arrange another mass sale. However, some growth of bitcoin this year is still possible, the most realistic scenario is to reach the mark of $14 thousand.

Earlier, the co-founder of the investment company Morgan Creek Digital Anthony Pompliano appealed to clients with the forecast that in 2021 BTC will rise to at least $100,000 in 2021. But if the conditions are more favorable, the rate can grow to $250,000.