What will happen to the crypto market in 2022. Analysts' forecast of Arcane Research


What will happen to the crypto market in 2022. Analysts' forecast of Arcane Research

Experts believe that next year there will be more public cryptocurrency companies, and the giants of the gaming industry will enter the NFT market.


Analytical company Arcane Research has published its own forecasts for the digital asset market for the next year. The forecast mentions the growth of bitcoin, the emergence of new public crypto companies and the loss of XRP and Cardano tokens from the ten largest cryptocurrencies by capitalization.

Bitcoin will surpass the S&P 500

Analysts note that in 2021, bitcoin is ahead of the S&P 500 in terms of profitability. For 12 months, the first cryptocurrency has risen in price by 65%, while the index has grown by 28%. Next year, bitcoin will continue to outpace the S&P 500, according to Arcane Research.


On November 10, the price of bitcoin updated the historical maximum above $ 69 thousand (an increase of 138% since the beginning of the year). On December 29, the cryptocurrency is traded at $ 47.6 thousand, and its capitalization is $ 902 billion, according to CoinGecko.

At the end of December, the S&P 500 updated the historical maximum above $ 4.8 thousand For the month, the index rose by almost 4%.

XRP and Cardano will leave the top 10 largest cryptocurrencies

Arcane Research believes that next year the XRP and Cardano (ADA) tokens will leave the list of the top 10 largest cryptocurrencies by capitalization. Analysts came to this conclusion based on the significant growth of other tokens, such as Solana (+ 11,538% for the year), Terra (+ 13,728% for the year) and Binance Coin (+ 1394% for the year). In 2021, XRP and Cardano tokens rose in price by 246% and 695%, respectively.

The US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) at the end of 2020 accused Ripple of selling unregistered securities for $ 1.3 billion under the guise of XRP tokens. In November of this year, the CEO of Ripple suggested that the trial will end in 2022.

NFT Mania Will Continue

This year, many companies, celebrities and sports organizations have issued their own non-fungible tokens. Analysts believe that in 2022, traditional gaming companies will begin to enter the NFT market en masse.

In early December, computer game developer Ubisoft announced the launch of its own NFT marketplace. It will sell digital goods called Digits, each will receive a unique number. The project is based on the Tezos blockchain.

There will be more public crypto companies

Next year, large initial public offerings of shares of crypto companies on the stock market are expected, according to Arcane Research. According to analysts, representatives of the cryptocurrency sector will want to repeat the success of Coinbase, which in April of this year became the world's first public crypto exchange.

The trading platform conducted a public listing on NASDAQ (without the IPO procedure). At the peak, the company's share price reached $ 429.5, then they moved into the stage of decline. As of December 29, 11:30 Moscow time on the premarket, the price of securities of the first public crypto exchange is $ 261. The capitalization of the crypto exchange is estimated at $ 56.2 billion.

Growth of assets in crypto funds

At the end of this year, several bitcoin futures ETFs were launched. The first such fund was the Bitcoin Strategy ETF (ticker symbol BITO) of ProShares, which began trading on October 19 on the NASDAQ stock exchange. After that, bitcoin ETFs from Valkyrie Investments (ticker symbol BTF) and VanEck (ticker symbol XBTF) were launched.

At the end of December, bitcoin ETFs store 846.3 thousand BTC ($ 39.7 billion, taking into account the current rate as of December 29). Arcane Research predicted that next year the volume of funds based on bitcoin will continue to grow and exceed 1 million BTC.

Strengthening the geographical distribution of the hashrate

Before the complete ban on mining in China, the country accounted for about 70% of the bitcoin hashrate. However, in August, China's share fell to zero. Leadership in the production of the first cryptocurrency passed to the United States (35.4%). The second and third places were taken by Kazakhstan and Russia (18% and 6.8%, respectively).

Analysts say that the relocation of miners will continue, and the geography of their relocation will increase. One of the promising regions for mining is Latin America, according to Arcane Research.

The first bans on mining Chinese provinces began to introduce at the end of May. In July, the State Energy Corporation of China officially imposed a requirement on all its customers not to use electricity to mine any cryptocurrencies in all regions of the country. The migration of miners from China provoked the largest drop in the hashrate in the history of Bitcoin.



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